In moneyline sports, such as baseball and hockey, historical data shows that picking underdogs is the best way to earn profits when investing in the sports marketplace. This may result in winning only 40%-50% of your selections, but the plus-money odds mean you’ll have positive units won despite a losing winning percentage .
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In order to make money sports betting football and basketball spreads, bettors must win 52.4% of the time (assuming -110 juice) in order to break even. However, if MLB bettors avoid big favorites and consistently take plus-money underdogs (+120, +150, +170) they can win at a sub-50% clip but still finish the year with positive units won.
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The following formula can be used to calculate no margin, or "fair" odds: (Boston Red Sox odds - Tampa Bay Rays odds) / 2 = Boston Red Sox no margin odds. After converting the Boston Red Sox odds into "fair odds," we can work out the percentage chance of a -1.5 Run Line bet on them winning: (105 / 205) x 100 = 51%.
In order to break even when betting on baseball or football, you must win 52.4 percent of the time. You may easily win at a sub-50 percent rate and with positive units if you bet and avoid the large favorites while constantly selecting plus-money underdogs +170, +150, +120.
In every contest you will have a team that is favored, represented by a minus sign next to the money line (eg. Yankees -125), as well as an underdog, which will have a plus sign next to the money line (eg. Rays +115). In our examples, to win $100 you would need to risk $125 on the Yankees because they are favored.
Total return of $205. Implied probability: 100/205 = 48.8%. If we add together the implied probability that we found on both sides — 55.5 + 48.8 — we get a total of 104.3. One side is going to win while the other will lose in a coin flip scenario, so that works out to 50/50, or 100%.
The numbers next to each run total is the odds the bettor will receive if he or she wins the bet. If Peter bets on the Red Sox, they would have to win by a total of 2 runs in order for him to win. If he bets on the A’s, they would have to win outright or lose by no less than 1 run.
One bettor can win nine out of ten bets, with the same amount of money placed on each wager, and still lose money. Another better can win only one out of ten bets, with the same amount of money placed on each wager again, and win money.